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A website banner ad – on Facebook, a WordPress blog, or Internet media website – should not rotate to the point where it negatively impacts the ad’s click through rate. This is true whether a Tablet (eg. iPad, PlayBook, Galaxy, Android), smartphone (eg. iPhone, BlackBerry), laptop, or desktop PC is used to browse an Internet media portal’s home page. Time series data analysis may identify the optimal number of times that a home page website banner ad should rotate: maximizing revenue that is generated from it. Optimal banner ad rotation analysis is the next step after heat map analysis has identified an appropriate web page layout. Banner ad rotation decisions must then be made before content optimization analytics determines page areas where content will generate maximum reader interest. Banner advertising remains a popular Canadian Internet marketing tactic. According to the Interactive Advertising Bureau of Canada (IAB) 2010-11 Canadian Online Advertising Revenue Report, approximately $700 million dollars was spent on display and banner ad revenues in 2011.

Internet media portals may use time series data analysis to determine the optimal number of times that a home page banner ad must be displayed to visitors. Media organizations – such as the CBC, Globe and Mail and New York Times – cover news, business, sports, and other stories. Internet marketers attempt to generate traffic for their own websites by purchasing banner ads on these online media portals. A banner ad – located at the top of a home page – commonly rotates. This allows one banner spot to be sold to more than one advertiser (eg. four) over the same period of time (eg. a month). A four rotation banner ad describes how artwork for four advertisers is displayed – on a rotation basis – in the same spot at the top of a web page. Each banner advertiser is charged a ‘cost per impressions (CPM)’ rate: a fee for each time their ad is displayed to a website visitor. For example, the National Post (http://www.nationalpost.com/) may charge an advertiser a $40 CPM rate: $40 dollars if their banner ad is displayed 1,000 times.

Time series analysis of website data may be used to answer the following banner ad rotation questions:

- Is a four banner ad rotation optimal?

- If a banner ad is changed from four rotations to five rotations, does this negatively impact the ad’s click through rate and advertiser revenue?

WebTrends (http://webtrends.com/), SiteCatalyst(https://sitecatalyst.omniture.com/login/) or Google Analytics (http://www.google.com/analytics/) web analytics software can capture the necessary raw data from a media website for answering the above questions. Let’s assume, for example, that a Toronto Star banner ad must be analyzed and the following data is available: normalized home page views, click throughs, ad impressions, and banner rotation data. When plotted over time, one may notice that a change in banner ad rotation (eg. from three to four rotations) cannibalizes the banner ad click through rate.

Over time, the rate of increase or decrease in home page views, banner ad click through rates and impressions might be compared. Normalizing all website and banner ad data allows for a direct comparison of data points over time. The periods at which each banner ad rotation change was implemented (eg. a change from three to four banner ad rotations) must also be clearly marked. The following is one possible scenario: the rate of increase in home page views is significantly higher than banner ad click through rates after moving from a three to four rotation cycle. If this is the case, a three ad rotation cycle is the preferred choice. The same analysis may be conducted to evaluate the impact of other rotation cycles on ad click through rates. The banner ad rotation cycle for which click through rates are highest is the optimal solution.

Time series is a powerful data analysis technique that Internet media companies may use to determine the optimal number of home page banner ad rotations. It applies regardless of whether the ad is displayed on Facebook, a blog or media portal such as the CBC website. Findings from banner ad rotation analysis are equally valuable for maximizing revenue from Tablet PC, smartphone, laptop, and desktop website visitors.

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